Among the unhelpful, panic-mongering posts going around social media about how the regime will cancel the midterm elections, I caught one this morning about how Kristallnacht backfired on the Nazi regime because its public violence caught the citizens off guard. They didn't suddenly grow sympathetic to their Jewish fellow citizens. They just objected to the open brutality and widespread property damage. That is rather reminiscent of the right wing and "moderates" in this country, true. However, the post goes on to say that Hitler forced the "volk" to get back in line to support the regime when he launched World War II. Then it warns us that the current occupant of the Oval Office would not hesitate to start World War III to achieve the same kind of forced unity.
The dictator might fantasize that he could do something that Hitlerish, but several things conspire against him, or anyone similarly motivated.
As bad as the world is right now, it remains inoculated against true world war by the existence of doomsday weapons. It takes more than one country to play World War. In the 1930s, military hardware had advanced beyond what made World War I such a shocking slaughter and generational trauma, but you still had to go out in person to deliver your devastation. You had to drive there, march there, sail there, fly there. Germany eventually did develop early missile technology, but it remained pretty random right through the end of the conflict. At the start of the war, you just rolled out and faced whatever opposing forces rolled from their side to meet you.
The first world war was the result of unfortunate treaties and an outmoded sense of what warfare actually involved. Once it had started, it was hard to stop. Territory and resources were in play that would set the stage for the rest of the century.
The second world war was a result of the bungling of the aftermath of the first. But it might have happened anyway, because macho posturing was in vogue, and evolving weapon technology made global conquest look doable.
If the current dictator wanted to start a world war, it would be a nuclear war. I want to believe that our military would mutiny at that point rather than roll the dice on a limited nuclear exchange. Anyone who agreed to try that would have to be suicidal. It remains a possibility because of the number of miserable bastards who would commit murder-suicide. Look at the number of family annihilations in which a depressed individual, usually a man, takes out his domestic partner and their offspring before ending his own life. On a global political scale, look at the the kind of people who commit suicide attacks. Through history, they're not exclusively brown people from desert countries. All it would take is the perfect concentration of suicidal zealots who are willing to destroy humanity if they can't boss it around on their terms. Gather them, induct them into the military, and promote and assign them to get your cadre of murder-suicide soldiers at the controls of the nuclear arsenal. Fire one missile and see what happens. It makes a good movie plot, but is much harder to put together in the real world.
If you think that an attack by conventional forces, on Greenland, for instance, would do the trick, I call your attention to World War V -- the Vietnam War -- which was so divisive and unpopular that it set the stage for much of the strife that divides the nation today. By the 1990s we were ready to "give war a chance," as the gleeful militarists said at the time, but then the years of inconclusive bloodshed in Afghanistan and Iraq reminded us of why it wasn't so great after all.
The only people with any enthusiasm for war at this point are the chickenhawks who never put themselves in harm's way. This regime has a pretty high concentration of them, but the people who would have to execute the orders have been trained in more than just TV tough guy bullshit. The TV tough guy currently cosplaying as Secretary of Defense does have military experience, but not a service academy education. His on-again-off-again military career is not the same as the lifelong commitment of a truly senior military officer. He's well marinaded, but not seasoned.
And what if the dictator did start World War III? You and I can't do anything about that. The minority party in Congress can't do anything about that. Any move by military leaders to do anything about it would risk court martial and possibly execution. They might do it, because unswerving obedience isn't a good look when the survival of the human species is on the line. Keep hoping. Getting worried about it, even getting terrified about it, does you absolutely no good. Your "bug-out bag" and escape plans couldn't get you far enough to avoid the fallout -- literally -- of the conflagration. Think of Nevil Shute's On the Beach. So forget about it and focus on the boring, undramatic machinery of a functioning democracy. Continue opposing the regime through the non-routine actions of nonviolent resistance, and through community cohesiveness in the event that the goons come to your town and start throwing their weight around.
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