Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia

 Given that the Trump regime has been a joint venture with Russia since the first time around, and it's been even more obvious this time, any political figure or analysts asking whether he's concerned that the kidnapping of Venezuela's president, and stated plans to take over that country's oil fields will embolden Russia and China in their territory grabs is just framing a statement as a question.

Trump has an understanding with Putin. They've divvied up the world. Russia recently deployed intermediate range, nuclear capable missiles to Belarus, putting a gun to Europe's head. China's conducting military exercises off the coast of Taiwan. The deals have been made. Mind you, both China and Russia are assuming that the forces of ignorance and greed that have lifted Donald Trump to the status of most destructive president in American history will blunder so badly in their new playground that China and Russia will be able to close in from either side. The odds are in their favor.

At this point, China looks like the least worst as a global overlord. They're  repressive, sure. But Putin and Trump, and the powers aligned with them, are outright sadists. Trump and Putin and their devoted followers actively enjoy causing and watching pain and suffering. It's a major part of the strongman image. I don't welcome our Chinese overlords, I merely observe all the players and make a prediction. Domination by any or all of them will be much worse than bumbling toward some sort of global human understanding would have been. I just wanted to get a time and date stamp on my conjecture.

Trump has already threatened Cuba. Russia used to consider Cuba a tripwire, but I bet now they'd be willing to cut it loose to focus on getting more and more of the contiguous territory of the old USSR back together, and adding Western Europe as at least coerced allies.

Africa presents a problematic prize. South America gets mighty skinny as you go south. Neither Russia nor China would cross an ocean to fight you for it. But Africa is thick and broad and loaded with resources. It's difficult country to hold. A superpower could wield influence, but no outside force would be able to subdue any major percentage of it. China, Russia, and the country formerly known as the United States will continue to compete there, with the US off to the slowest start because of the stupidity, greed, and bigotry of the current regime, whether it's the part led by the senile 1980s real estate failure or the part led by Bible-thumping misogynists.

So: The Big Three have divided the world into general spheres of influence where each will let the other do pretty much anything. Global war will be threatened on a regular basis to keep ordinary citizens on edge expecting Armageddon. Small wars will bleed off young people who have no other job options. Or maybe conscription will return. If you survive your enlistment with all your body parts, and your mind intact, you might go on to finish out your career in the building trades, or trucking. If you're maimed in body and or spirit, die a beggar. No one asked you to be born. Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country's wealthy leaders.

War in Ukraine: Economics versus morality

 As the consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine continue to expand, major disruptions of food and energy supplies threaten economic stability across the developed world, and actual survival across the Global South. Areas that were under stress are now under much more stress. This will only get worse as the war drags on, and Russia refuses to back down from its unprovoked and immoral act of violence against a neighboring nation.

Vladimir Putin's greed for power drives the nation that he leads to act as his machine to sow chaos for the gain of a wealthy minority. Did Putin know that his forces would not have to sweep to easy victory in Ukraine to generate the leverage that he now enjoys? As long as the war lasts, Russia's power will only grow, because of the strategic importance of Ukraine as a food supplier, and Russia's position as a key player in the fossil fuel economy. The fossil fuel economy still has a choke hold on the world.

From a moral standpoint, the rest of the world should stand united in support of Ukraine against Russia's brutal war of conquest. From an economic standpoint, the rest of the world will see an almost immediate -- though temporary -- improvement in conditions by ceding Ukraine to Russia, perhaps even throwing support behind the old empire's second-rate military to help overrun Ukrainian resistance. As deplorable as Russia is, at least the rule of an authoritarian empire provides a single, known entity to build a strategy against. Think of how wonderfully simple everything seemed during the Cold War.

The United States has already suffered moral damage as our desperation for petroleum has driven us to make amends with Saudi Arabia. The Biden administration had made admirable efforts to recognize the abuses of the Saudi regime, for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, and the war in Yemen. Now we are abandoning that stance and kissing up for oil. Stick a bigger flag on your pickup truck for that one.

What do you think? A long, expensive, bloody struggle lasting years and years to uphold the sovereignty of Ukraine and the continued rise of democracy in the world, or cheaper gas and food and shame that will follow us all the rest of our lives? Having chosen petroleum over virtue, those lives will be shorter in any case. The improvements really will only be temporary, as the climate finally goes out of control, and famine and drought envelop more and more of the earth's surface.

The climate collapse gains momentum in either scenario, as we neglect measures to mitigate it because our focus is on the delicate balance of a limited war with an erstwhile superpower or we hit the accelerator with our newly refueled big trucks and motorized toys. War is environmentally devastating, but our consumer version of peace and prosperity is also environmentally devastating.

The best answer would be for Russia to suddenly shake its head and back out of Ukraine with profuse apologies. That ain't happening. We have to figure out in a hurry whether the less worse prospect to reduce global threats is to throw Ukraine to the bears and deal with imperialist Russia or to ratchet up support for Ukraine's defense and hope that it drives Russia back to its borders sooner than later.

An unstoppable wave of suffering and death

 The current crisis in Ukraine not only puts us on the verge -- if not an inescapable path -- to nuclear destruction, it also forces humanity to ignore the environmental collapse that's been brewing since the beginning of the 20th Century.

World-wide, authoritarian governments push back against democracy, while democratic countries and confederations have to satisfy voters in order to get anything done. While individual voters may value their freedom, and access to government, large groups of them act from narrow interests to the detriment not only of their nation but of the world as a whole. We've had decades to wean ourselves off of fossil fuels, for instance, but instead have only looked for cheaper prices for the poison.

This fossil fuel dependency plays strongly into the doom set in motion as Russia warms up the missile launchers in eager anticipation of the showdown with the West. China might hope to play the moderator, but no one can put the brakes on Putin's aggression except Putin himself. And the war crimes of his soldiers show that he has no shortage of depraved followers enjoying the sadistic task of terrorizing their way to a dominant role strictly by virtue of their willingness to take us all to hell with them in a fireball. As long as democratic governments are rightly afraid to ask their citizens to sacrifice for the war effort by dealing with high prices and shortages in a wartime economy, Russia will continue to act with justifiable confidence.

As Russia and China play Bad Cop/Slightly Less Bad Cop with the rest of the world, the cult of the strongman leader seems to offer a path to safety for anyone willing to knuckle under and kiss up. The depraved and sadistic see career opportunities in such regimes. None of them seem to give much thought to how short a run they'll have. One side or the other will probably blink in the nuclear confrontation, but by then we'll have lost too much time on the environmental collapse and we're probably going to end up in a society where you'd best not depart visibly from a narrow set of norms.

The odds favor a pretty miserable future. I challenge you to prove me wrong.